A recent poll conducted by Elabe from April 2 to 4, 2025, shows Marine Le Pen and Jordan Bardella firmly leading in the intentions for the upcoming presidential elections in France.

This polling data comes shortly after Le Pen's first-instance conviction for public fund embezzlement, which resulted in a five-year ineligibility sentence that could hinder her presidential bid.

The poll tested six potential electoral scenarios, incorporating various candidates from the Socialist Party (PS), The Republicans (LR), and the centrist block.

The results indicate that both Le Pen and Bardella consistently secure leading positions, with Le Pen receiving between 32% and 36% of voter intentions and Bardella garnering between 31% and 35.5%.

In each scenario, the candidate representing the macronist camp trails behind.

Édouard Philippe emerges as the strongest contender among these candidates, with support ranging from 20.5% to 24%.

Gabriel Attal, who has yet to declare his candidacy, receives around 18% support.

On the right, Bruno Retailleau outperforms Laurent Wauquiez, securing between 8% and 10% compared to Wauquiez's 4.5%.

From the Socialist camp, Raphaël Glucksmann leads with between 10.5% of the votes, followed by François Hollande at 5.5% to 6% and Olivier Faure at 4%.

Jean-Luc Mélenchon is projected to receive between 9.5% and 11% of the votes, ahead of Marine Tondelier with 3.5% to 6% and Fabien Roussel at 4.5% to 6%.

Eric Zemmour holds between 3.5% and 5% of intended votes, while Dominique de Villepin, mentioned in two scenarios, sees lower potential support ranging from 2.5% to 5%.

For context, in the 2022 presidential election, Emmanuel Macron led the first round with 27.9% of votes, followed by Le Pen at 23.2% and Mélenchon at 22.0%.

The recent Elabe poll was conducted online with a sample size of 1,533 individuals, representative of the metropolitan French population aged 18 and older, of which 1,413 are registered voters.